Home > #MTBoS, Commentary > A tale of two Graphs

A tale of two Graphs

For the last two years I’ve collected some amazingly bad graphs from election material, both that has come through my door, and that other people have sent me (see this and this.) My own MP provided so many gems that Colin Beveridge  (@icecolbeveridge) started an Internet campaign to have people refer to these misleading election graphs as “Mulhollands” – after the man himself. This led to Colin and others tweeting him questions about his misleading graphs and one teacher, Adam Creen (@adamcreen) tweeting him with corrected “Mulhollands” that his Y9 class had completed.

This was obviously effective, as each time a piece of campaign literature has arrived since I have scoured it and there has only been one chart on any of them, and that was correctly drawn! A success! Bizarrely, as I have had many other folks looking out for them, this seems a success that has been widespread as I’ve not come across any hideously inaccurate graphs this year.

I did think that this election season would pass without any mention on this blog but today I came across two interesting graphs from a neighbouring ward. Both are accurate, but they tell very different stories, and reminded me a little of Simpson’s Paradox, without actually being directly related to it.

Exhibit A

image

This graph is from the Lib Dems in Horsforth ward for the Leeds City Council elections, it’s not wholly accurate in terms of the bar charts,  but it’s near enough to not irk me too much. It shows that of the 5 previous local elections in the area the Lib Dems have won 3 and the Conservatives have won 2. They are using this to sell the idea that it’s only them or the Conservatives who can with the seat. However…….

Exhibit B

image

This is from a Labour party leaflet in the very same ward and it shows that in the last Local Election the Labour party candidate came second to the Conservative candidate and that the Lib Dem ended in last place. The inference here is that Labour are more likely to beat the Conservatives as they came second last time.

Both leaflets are presenting true facts selected to further their narrative, and both are presenting them accurately, although one could argue they are both a little misleading.

I’ve looked at the stats from the last few years, it seems that on general election years the tories win by a fair way, but that in local election years it is tight between all three parties, but the lib dem vote has been steadily dropping. It could be an interesting ward to judge the national feeling on on Friday when the results come in, as it is really a 3 way marginal in non GE years.

The anomaly that is the general election year is interesting, more people do vote nationally when there is a GE, but the massive swing to the tories is fairly unusual, as they tend to be good at mobilising the vote. I do know that the Lib Dems in that constituency didn’t really campaign during the GE and the seat was a Tory Labour marginal, and that in a neighbouring Lib Dem Labour marginal the Conservatives didn’t campaign, so perhaps this had an effect.

If you have found any terrible election graphs, please send me them!

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  1. May 4, 2016 at 11:40 am

    Is your collection of bad graphs available anywhere? Something I’ve always meant to do!

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